Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 23,164
2 Arizona 22,262
3 New York 21,407
4 New Jersey 20,409
5 Florida 19,734
6 Mississippi 17,574
7 Rhode Island 17,202
8 Massachusetts 16,777
9 District of Columbia 16,691
10 Alabama 16,171
11 South Carolina 15,770
12 Delaware 14,675
13 Georgia 14,455
14 Maryland 13,944
15 Nevada 13,934
16 Connecticut 13,680
17 Illinois 13,658
18 Texas 13,648
19 Iowa 13,425
20 Tennessee 13,373
21 Arkansas 12,798
22 Nebraska 12,726
23 Utah 11,844
24 California 11,625
25 North Carolina 10,762
26 Idaho 10,218
27 Virginia 9,907
28 South Dakota 9,489
29 Indiana 9,488
30 New Mexico 9,086
31 Minnesota 9,077
32 Wisconsin 9,048
33 Kansas 8,804
34 Pennsylvania 8,730
35 Michigan 8,686
36 Oklahoma 7,906
37 North Dakota 7,715
38 Colorado 7,703
39 Ohio 7,192
40 Washington 7,146
41 Missouri 7,083
42 Kentucky 6,196
43 Puerto Rico 4,741
44 New Hampshire 4,733
45 Wyoming 4,276
46 Alaska 4,237
47 Oregon 3,974
48 West Virginia 3,325
49 Montana 3,126
50 Maine 2,837
51 Vermont 2,243
52 Hawaii 1,172

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Florida 527
2 Mississippi 476
3 Louisiana 424
4 Arizona 412
5 Alabama 345
6 Tennessee 325
7 Nevada 306
8 Georgia 301
9 South Carolina 297
10 Oklahoma 279
11 Arkansas 261
12 Idaho 261
13 Texas 225
14 California 220
15 Missouri 193
16 Alaska 190
17 Utah 186
18 North Carolina 182
19 Puerto Rico 174
20 North Dakota 167
21 Wisconsin 167
22 Iowa 164
23 Maryland 160
24 Minnesota 143
25 New Mexico 141
26 Indiana 138
27 Kentucky 138
28 Nebraska 137
29 Montana 130
30 Virginia 130
31 Kansas 129
32 Delaware 125
33 Colorado 113
34 Illinois 113
35 Ohio 110
36 District of Columbia 98
37 South Dakota 94
38 Washington 94
39 Oregon 78
40 West Virginia 76
41 Wyoming 73
42 Michigan 72
43 Pennsylvania 68
44 New Jersey 55
45 Connecticut 50
46 Massachusetts 47
47 Hawaii 45
48 New York 34
49 New Hampshire 28
50 Rhode Island 23
51 Maine 19
52 Vermont 12

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,777
2 New York 1,660
3 Connecticut 1,237
4 Massachusetts 1,237
5 Rhode Island 945
6 District of Columbia 823
7 Louisiana 809
8 Michigan 641
9 Illinois 599
10 Delaware 594
11 Maryland 569
12 Pennsylvania 560
13 Mississippi 502
14 Arizona 455
15 Indiana 431
16 Georgia 322
17 Colorado 311
18 Alabama 300
19 New Hampshire 300
20 New Mexico 292
21 South Carolina 289
22 Minnesota 286
23 Ohio 282
24 Florida 272
25 Iowa 262
26 Virginia 243
27 Nevada 238
28 California 213
29 Washington 209
30 Missouri 200
31 Texas 175
32 North Carolina 172
33 Nebraska 166
34 Kentucky 160
35 Wisconsin 154
36 South Dakota 139
37 Tennessee 139
38 North Dakota 135
39 Arkansas 132
40 Oklahoma 125
41 Kansas 114
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 88
44 Utah 86
45 Idaho 83
46 Oregon 68
47 Puerto Rico 62
48 West Virginia 57
49 Montana 43
50 Wyoming 43
51 Alaska 24
52 Hawaii 17

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Delaware 17
2 Arizona 11
3 South Carolina 10
4 Mississippi 6
5 Alabama 5
6 Florida 5
7 Louisiana 5
8 Georgia 4
9 Texas 4
10 California 2
11 Massachusetts 2
12 Nevada 2
13 New Jersey 2
14 New Mexico 2
15 Tennessee 2
16 Washington 2
17 Arkansas 1
18 Idaho 1
19 Indiana 1
20 Kansas 1
21 Maryland 1
22 Missouri 1
23 North Carolina 1
24 Ohio 1
25 Oklahoma 1
26 Oregon 1
27 Puerto Rico 1
28 Alaska 0
29 Colorado 0
30 Connecticut 0
31 District of Columbia 0
32 Hawaii 0
33 Illinois 0
34 Iowa 0
35 Kentucky 0
36 Maine 0
37 Michigan 0
38 Minnesota 0
39 Montana 0
40 Nebraska 0
41 New Hampshire 0
42 New York 0
43 North Dakota 0
44 Pennsylvania 0
45 Rhode Island 0
46 South Dakota 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Virginia 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 138,160 1 99
Lake Tennessee 101,197 2 99
Lee Arkansas 98,905 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 94,228 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 90,469 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 28,444 114 96
Richland South Carolina 16,854 384 87
Orange California 10,824 810 74
York South Carolina 10,022 882 71
Pierce Washington 5,293 1609 48

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,020 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,399 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 2,999 5 99
Richland South Carolina 305 628 80
Davidson Tennessee 268 703 77
Orange California 178 964 69
Pierce Washington 146 1090 65
York South Carolina 85 1451 53

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons